Fred's Blog

Most sports bettors treat teaser bets as a novelty — a way to feel safer by moving the line, without really understanding what they're giving up or getting in return. That misunderstanding is exactly where the opportunity lives.

A 6-point teaser on an NFL game isn't just a convenience — it's a mathematically significant shift.

My system is built around identifying when and where the advantage lies. Not every game qualifies. Discipline — betting only when the system says to bet — is the most important part of the strategy. That's what separates systematic teaser betting from just picking favorites and hoping for the best.

The single most common mistake I see from sports bettors isn't picking bad games — it's mismanaging their bankroll. They double up after a loss to "get even," or bet bigger after a big win because they're feeling confident. Both are recipes for disaster.

I recommend proportional betting: if your balance increases by 5% one week, then increase your betting the next week by the same 5%. If your balance falls 5%, then your total bets also decrease the following week by the same amount. This system gives you some flexibility, but limited by common sense. It sounds boring. It is boring. That's the point.

In 2025, I had six straight losing weeks. Six. If I had been chasing losses during that stretch, I would have wiped out. Instead, I trusted the system, and by the end of the season I had more than doubled my starting balance for the year. The winning weeks are designed to outpace the losing weeks — but only if you're still in the game when they arrive. Proportional betting keeps you in the game.

The Playbook covers exactly how to size your proportional bets based on your starting bankroll. It's one of the most practical sections in the whole document.