Week #7 Results: So Close, Yet So Far
Fred's Picks turned in a disappointing performance for Week #7, but it was very close to a winner.
First the numbers: Fred's Picks won 5 games and lost 3 this week, bringing the total winning percentage for the year to 69.6%, which is below Fred's historic average of about 75%. The good news is that none of our wins were close calls: Miami, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and the New York Giants all won their games outright, and Green Bay lost by just 3, well inside its 9.5 points. The Arizona game was mighty frustrating, as the Cardinals had 6 chances to score a touchdown from the 1-yard line and failed. Kansas City was simply outplayed by Seattle. The Cowboys scored a garbage-time touchdown at the end of the game that turned Philly +10.5 from a winner into a loser (at +10, it would have been a push).
So the luck only ran against us. We won 5 games easily but lost the 2 games that were close.
As a result, every type of teaser bet that we track is down for the year (2-team, 3-team, 4-team and 6-team). It makes sense to reduce the size of your wagers in future weeks, as we recommend in the Teaser Playbook.
How to read the Code column: each teaser combines picks that are next to each other in the list. For example, the 3-team teasers are ABC, BCD, CDE and so on, wrapping around to GHA and HAB, which gives eight bets of each type.
| Home | Away | Home Line | Fred's Picks | Score (Home-Away) | Result | Code |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJets | Miami | -4 | Miami +10 | 25-28 | W | A |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | -3/-2.5 | TBay +9/8.5 | 13-43 | W | B |
| Minn | Indy | -6.5 | Minn -0.5 | 16-10 | W | C |
| Houston | NYGiants | -10.5 | NYGiants +16.5 | 21-27 | W | D |
| Arizona | Denver | +4.5 | Arizona +10.5 | 16-30 | L | E |
| Detroit | Green Bay | -3.5 | GBay +9.5 | 20-17 | W | F |
| Seattle | KC | -3 | KC +9 | 20-3 | L | G |
| Philly | Dallas | +4/+4.5 | Philly +10/+10.5 | 21-38 | L | H |
| 3-Team | 4-Team | 6-Team | 2-Team (not recommended) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bets Won | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Bets Lost | 6 | 7 | 8 | 5 |
| Risked per Bet | $50 | $50 | $25 | $50 |
| Win per Bet | $90 | $150 | $175 | $45 |
| Total Won | $180 | $150 | $0 | $135 |
| Total Lost | ($300) | ($350) | ($200) | ($250) |
| Net for the Week | ($120) | ($200) | ($200) | ($115) |
| Balance (10/27) | $720 | $400 | $650 | $860 |
Having said that, we were SO CLOSE to a big win for the week. If Arizona had been able to punch it in from the 1-yard line, and if the Cowboys had not scored that meaningless TD with about 2 minutes left, Fred's Picks would have won 7 games and lost 1. Look at the difference that would have made – every type of bet would be profitable or breaking even, not just for the week, but for the whole year (as you can see below). So stay tuned, all we need is one big week to turn things around.
| 3-Team | 4-Team | 6-Team | 2-Team (not recommended) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bets Won | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Bets Lost | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Risked per Bet | $50 | $50 | $25 | $50 |
| Win per Bet | $90 | $150 | $175 | $45 |
| Total Won | $450 | $600 | $350 | $270 |
| Total Lost | ($150) | ($200) | ($150) | ($100) |
| Net for the Week | $300 | $400 | $200 | $170 |
| Hypothetical Balance (10/27) | $1,140 | $1,000 | $1,050 | $1,145 |
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Fred