Week #6 Results: Down but Not Out
Fred's Picks won 4 games and lost 2 in Week #6. Indianapolis (-1) outgained Tennessee 399-186 in total yards but still came up short, 20-26, because of special teams bungles. Dak Prescott twice threw interceptions to end potential scoring drives, and Dallas (+7) lost 23-13. For the year, Fred's Picks have now won 70.8% of the time (34-14). That is right at the break-even point (about 71%) for 3-team, 4-team and 6-team teasers, but not high enough to turn a profit. Nonetheless, we remain confident that we are on the right track.
While a 4-2 record might not sound too bad, the losses were spaced apart in the worst way possible. Here's why. This week, Fred's Teaser Edge system identified 6 qualifying teams, labeled A through F in the game log below. For 3-team teasers, I recommend making 6 bets (ABC, BCD, CDE, DEF, EFA and FAB), and the 4-team bets follow the same rotation (ABCD, BCDE, CDEF, DEFA, EFAB and FABC). The advantage of this approach is that each team appears the same number of times. The disadvantage is that the result depends on the spacing between the losing teams.
This week, the losing teams were spaced well apart. Indy (B) and Dallas (E) lost, and a "B" or an "E" appears in every one of the 3-team and 4-team bets, so none of them won. (If the two losing teams had been A and B instead, the CDE and DEF bets would have won.) Ironically, 2-team teasers (which I generally do not recommend) would have produced 2 winning bets (CD and FA), but even that strategy ended the week with a net loss of $110. See Fred's Teaser Playbook for a more detailed discussion of these grouping strategies.
| Home | Away | Home Line | Bet On | Score (Home-Away) | Result | ID |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | NYJets | -7/-7.5 | NE -1/-1.5 | 26-19 | W | A |
| Indy | Tenn | -7 | Indy -1 | 20-26 | L | B |
| KC | LAChar | -7.5 | KC -1.5 | 22-6 | W | C |
| LVegas | Buff | +4.5 | LVegas +10.5 | 30-33 | W | D |
| GBay | Dallas | -1 | Dallas +7 | 23-13 | L | E |
| SF | Wash | -7.5 | SF -1.5 | 23-17 | W | F |
| 3-Team | 4-Team | 6-Team | 2-Team (not recommended) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bets Won | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bets Lost | 6 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| Risked per Bet | $50 | $50 | $25 | $50 |
| Win per Bet | $90 | $150 | $175 | $45 |
| Total Won | $0 | $0 | $0 | $90 |
| Total Lost | ($300) | ($300) | ($25) | ($200) |
| Net for the Week | ($300) | ($300) | ($25) | ($110) |
| Balance (10/20) | $840 | $600 | $850 | $975 |
We are down for the year, but not out. As a reminder, I had six straight losing weeks last year and still finished the season with a significant profit (see the 2025 results). So hang in there!
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Fred