FAQ

A teaser is a type of NFL point-spread bet that lets you move the line 6 points in your favor. For example, if a team is favored by -2 points, you can add six points to the line so that you bet on the team +4 points. Your team can lose the game by up to 3 points and you still win the bet.

The trade-off: you must combine at least two teams into a single bet, and all teams must cover their adjusted spreads for you to win the bet. Miss one team, lose the whole bet. You can combine from 2 to 10 teams in one bet, and the payouts get bigger but less likely to happen the more teams you include.

The advantage of having an extra six points is not equal for every game. But the sportsbook odds (the payouts) do not always capture the added value of the extra 6 points in some situations. For example, if you add six points to every team's spread, the teams will win about 69% of the time, which is not enough to win money consistently over the long run. Fred's Teaser Edge Formula identifies certain teams, in certain situations, that have won about 75% of the time with the added points — a rate that is significantly higher than the break-even point. Of course, there is no guarantee that this success rate in the past will continue into the future, but the track record is strong. This is explained in more detail in the Playbook.

The minimum is two teams; you can combine more. The Playbook explains how the odds and risk-reward change as you add teams. Fred's Weekly Picks can be combined in different ways depending on your strategy — the Playbook walks through how to think about that decision.

The Teaser Playbook ($47) is a one-time PDF download that teaches you the best teaser bet strategies — the math behind teaser bets, which situations offer an edge, how to size your bets, and how to build a strategy that holds up over a full season.

The Weekly Teaser Picks ($99 for the full 2026-27 season/$149 after Aug. 31) put the Playbook into action. Every week, Fred's Teaser Edge Formula identifies which teams to bet on and delivers those picks to subscribers on Saturday evening by email and on a secure webpage.

It varies. Typically, Fred will send between 3 and 11 picks per week depending on how many games meet the system's criteria. Some weeks the system flags a lot of qualifying teams; some weeks only a few. The discipline to bet only on Fred's picks — and not add your own — is part of what makes the system work.

Picks are sent by Saturday at 6 PM Eastern, covering Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and Monday Night Football games. The Weekly Picks will not include games played on Thursday, Friday or Saturday, and will not include international games (often played on Sunday morning).

Fred's covers NFL regular season games only — no playoffs, no preseason. The system relies on data that isn't a good fit for pre-season or post-season match-ups.

Please don't. The picks are confidential. The more widely distributed they become, the more likely sportsbooks are to adjust their lines and remove the system's edge. Keeping the picks to yourself protects your own advantage.

There are no refunds for purchasing the Playbook. Those who purchase the Weekly Picks have 3 days from the date of purchase to request a refund. There are no refunds after the three-day window expires unless there are operational problems on Fred's side that prevent us from delivering the Picks to our subscribers.

As you can see from the Results page, losing streaks are to be expected, as they are with any gambling strategy. In 2025, Fred lost money in six consecutive weeks. Yet the full season was still very profitable because winning weeks tend to pay out more than losing weeks cost. That asymmetry is built into Fred's teaser bet strategy.

The key to surviving losing streaks is percentage betting, rather than chasing losses. The Playbook explains this in detail. Subscribers who stick to the system for the full season give themselves the best chance of coming out ahead.

Both products are one-time payments — no membership, no subscription, no auto-renewal. The Playbook is $47 and the full 2026-27 season picks are $99 ($149 after August 31). Purchasing either product does not enroll you in any membership program. You will not be automatically charged for the next season. If you purchase Fred's Weekly Picks this year, Fred will offer you the same $99/$149 price for next season as well.

Historically, Week 1 has been one of the weakest weeks of the season. Opening-week lines are set without any current-season data, which makes them noisier and less predictable. Fred still sends picks when the system flags qualifying teams in Week 1, but consider betting smaller amounts that first week than you would in a typical mid-season week.