Week #3 Results: Back to Black
That's more like it. After a poor Week #1, and a middling profit in Week #2, Week #3 results were excellent, with one caveat (discussed below). Of the 8 teams that qualified under Fred's Teaser Edge formula, 7 teams won and only 1 lost, due to a dismal performance by New England against Jacksonville. A little luck helped, as Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker missed a meaningless 50-yard field goal near the end of the game that allowed Miami (+16.5) to cover the teaser spread in a 24-10 loss. The extra six points helped Tennessee cover, while Detroit, Buffalo, Indianapolis, Las Vegas and Denver won their games outright.
| Home | Away | Home Line | Bet On | Score (Home-Away) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | KC | +10.5 | Miami +16.5 | 10-24 | W |
| Jacksonville | NE | -3 | NE +9 | 35-6 | L |
| Indy | Houston | +1.5/+2 | Indy +7.5/+8 | 19-17 | W |
| Detroit | NYJets | -6.5 | Detroit -0.5 | 31-24 | W |
| NYGiants | Tenn | -2.5 | Tenn +8.5 | 12-7 | W |
| Buffalo | LACharg | -7 | Buffalo -1 | 24-16 | W |
| NO | LVegas | -3 | LVegas +9 | 27-35 | W |
| Denver | LARams | +1.5/+2 | Denver +7.5/+8 | 30-26 | W |
The 7-1 record yielded a profit of $170 to $400 across all teaser groups (3-team, 4-team, 6-team and even 2-team), as shown below. So it was a good weekend all around. The overall win rate for the season so far climbed to 16-7 (69.6%), which is still below the historic average of 75%. More success is still very possible.
| 3-Team | 4-Team | 6-Team | 2-Team (not recommended) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bets Won | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Bets Lost | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Risked per Bet | $50 | $50 | $25 | $50 |
| Win per Bet | $90 | $150 | $175 | $45 |
| Total Won | $450 | $600 | $350 | $270 |
| Total Lost | ($150) | ($200) | ($150) | ($100) |
| Net | $300 | $400 | $200 | $170 |
| Balance (9/28) | $1,250 | $1,250 | $1,150 | $1,085 |
You may notice that I changed the format of the table above to make the results clearer. The previous table showed my actual account balances for 4-team and 6-team teasers. But that made it difficult to compare the results with 3-team and 2-team teasers since those accounts started with a different balance. So now I have assumed that each grouping strategy started with the same hypothetical $1,000 balance. I also admit that I made a mistake in placing my own bets on Sunday morning. (I included New England in 5 4-team teasers instead of 4, which threw off my personal results. I realize now that my personal results do not accurately reflect Fred's Teaser Edge strategy.) Finally, I standardized the amount bet on 6-team teasers at $25 per bet (rather than alternating $50 and $25).
Now the caveat: You may have noticed that the Saturday picks included 9 teams, not 8. I also noted that if the line changes by a full point or more, to take that game off the list. That is exactly what happened to the Washington-Seattle game. On Saturday, the line was Seattle -7.5, which made it qualified at Seattle -1.5. But by Sunday morning, the line shifted to Seattle -8.5, which made it unqualified, so it came off the list. Betting on Seattle would have been a loser, as Washington won the game outright. As a reminder, it's always better to place your bets as close to game time as possible to take advantage of the latest odds.
The Monday night game (Chicago +3.5/Philadelphia) does not qualify under Fred's Teaser Edge strategy. So just enjoy the game!
Fred